EDITOR'S NOTE: I checked today's date after reading this story and wondering if it was supposed to be published on April Fool's Day. Well, it certainly isn't April the first, so we may as well dig in, (skeptically as always), discover whether the promised technology will in fact deliver what Hitachi promises, and follow developments closely. It should be interesting!
Harold Levy: Publisher; The Charles Smith Blog.
STORY: "Hitachi Says It Can Predict Crimes Before They Happen," by reporter Sean Captain published by Elasticity on October 28, 2015.
SUB-HEADING: "Not quite
Minority Report, but monitoring everything from weather to Twitter may be able to predict where and when crime will occur."
SUB-HEADING: "No doubt the precogs have already seen this," says Chief John
Anderton (played by Tom Cruise), head of Washington, D.C.'s experimental
"Precrime" crime-prediction department in
Minority Report, the 2002 Steven Spielberg movie based on Philip K. Dick's 1956 short story (which is also now a new Fox TV series)."
GIST: "Of course, no one has found a trio of psychic mutant "precogs" who
can unanimously foresee future crimes, but Hitachi today introduced a
system that promises to predict where and when crime is likely to occur
by ingesting a panoply of data, from historical crime statistics to
public transit maps, from weather reports to social media chatter.
Hitachi says that "about half a dozen" U.S. cities will join a proof of
concept test of the technology beginning in October, and though Hitachi
hasn't yet named them, Washington, D.C. could well be on the list. It's
one of several dozen cities in the U.S. and Caribbean countries where
the company already provides video surveillance and sensor systems to
police departments with its Hitachi Visualization Suite. Hitachi execs
provided several examples—even screenshots of the software—featuring
D.C. in my conversations with them.........What the new technology, called Hitachi Visualization
Predictive Crime Analytics (PCA), does have is the ability to ingest
streams of sensor and Internet data from a wide variety of sources.
It then applies what's called machine learning, using the popular
statistical software known as "R," that crunches all this information in
order to find patterns that humans would miss. "A human just can't
handle when you get to the tens or hundreds of variables that could
impact crime," says Lipscomb, "like weather, social media, proximity to
schools, Metro [subway] stations, gunshot sensors, 911 calls.".........Machine learning is the hot new phase of artificial intelligence.
Rather than trying to design a beautiful electronic mind, computer
scientists are now building huge distributed computing systems that
learn by sifting through fire hoses of data and ascertaining patterns or
anomalies. This has become practical only recently with the development
of big, cheap data storage and processing capabilities, like Amazon Web
Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Hitachi's own HDS cloud system–all
of which Hitachi's PCA can run on...... Applying machine learning is a big switch from traditional police
dispatching, say both Lipscomb and Mark Jules, his cofounder at Avrio
and Panatscene. (Both are now execs in Hitachi's Public Safety and
Visualization division.) Hitachi isn't the only company to provide public safety monitoring
and prediction services. Where it claims to be unique is in its use of
machine learning, in allowing the data to drive the predictions rather
than going in with any preconceived notions of what factors are
important. Traditionally, says Jules, police investigators build
crime-prediction models based on their experience with certain
variables, like the location of schools or slang words for drugs that
pop up on Twitter. They assign a weight to each variable based on how
important it seems to be. Hitachi's system, he says, doesn't require a
human to figure out what variables matter and how much. "You just feed
those data sets," says Jules. "And it decides, over a couple of weeks,
is there a correlation." Social media plays a big role in predicting crime, they say,
improving accuracy by 15%. Hitachi uses natural language processing: the
ability of a computer to ingest and understand colloquial text or
speech. Applying what's called a latent Dirichlet allocation, the system can
sift through every tweet tagged to a specific geography to find
significant words that indicate what's happening. "Gangs, for instance,
use these different keywords to maybe meet up or perform some action,"
says Lipscomb. "I don't know what that keyword is…but with our approach
we can actually pick out something that's abnormal, like someone's using
an off-topic word, and using it in a very tight density or proximity,
and that's going to get a bigger weight." One thing social media indicates is tension between neighborhoods
that could turn violent. "We were talking to [Washington] D.C., and they
said, our biggest cause and effect is what neighborhood you're closest
to," says Lipscomb. "There's these neighborhood rivalries going on in
D.C." Normally, said his colleague Jules, police wouldn't realize the
correlation between neighborhood tension flare-ups and crime until
months later..........
Big Brother, Or Actually Less Discrimination?
Anyone who has seen or read
Minority Report knows (spoiler
alert!) that things go awry. What if Hitachi's Visualization Predictive
Crime Analytics makes mistakes and guesses wrong? No one is talking
about preemptively arresting people, as in the story. But could this
lead to a new kind of biased profiling of innocents as potential
criminals? .........That still leaves open the question of accuracy: Will the technology
really target the right places, where crime is likely to occur? Lipscomb
acknowledges that he still has to prove the system will work. In the
upcoming tech trials, some cities will be taking action based on the
predictions, reallocating police to areas when the model predicts a
higher likelihood of crime. There will also be double-blind trials. Police departments will
continue with business as usual, but the models will also be running in
the background. Only after the test period will the police see what the
model had predicted each day, so they can compare the predictions to
what actually happened in the time frame. Hitachi has pledged to make
all these results publicly available for scrutiny. "We know that our approach is probably a little more innovative than
some of the others, but we're not saying it's more accurate," Lipscomb
says. "We want to prove it out with existing customers and then really
go broad-based and say: Look, this works."
The entire story can be found at:
http://www.fastcompany.com/3051578/elasticity/hitachi-says-it-can-predict-crimes-before-they-happen
PUBLISHER'S NOTE:
Dear Reader. Keep your eye on the Charles Smith Blog. We are following this case.
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Harold Levy: Publisher; The Charles Smith Blog;