PASSAGE OF THE DAY: "When the baseline issue was corrected in Mr. Dominguez's case, the new algorithm went from accusing him to "inconclusive." But prosecutors did not tell Mr. Dominguez's counsel about the change. The defendant was convicted based on what now is admittedly erroneous DNA math, and his lawyer wasn't aware of the flawed DNA-mixture protocols until six years later. After his lawyer found out about the inaccurate math, Dominguez prevailed in 2017 on a habeas corpus claim and was released from prison. But prosecutors decided to try him again, this time using a tool from a company called STR-Mix based on probabilistic genotyping. That was the forensic tool Judge Neff evaluated in Michigan. The bottom-line assessment in Judge Neff's opinion was that:
The DNA evidence sought to be admitted in this case—in essence, that it is 49 million times more likely if [the defendant] is a contributor to the DNA on the gun than if he is not— is not really evidence at all. It is a combination of forensic DNA techniques, mathematical theory, statistical methods (including Monte Carlo-Markov Chain modeling, as in the Monte Carlo gambling venue), decisional theory, computer algorithms, interpretation, and subjective opinions that cannot in the circumstances of this case be said to be a reliable sum of its parts. Our system of justice requires more.Courts in California were robbed of their chance to decide whether they agree.
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GIST: "It's perhaps a testament to the reduction in size of and competition among MSM outlets that nobody has yet covered the problems with DNA-mixture forensics raised by federal District Judge Janet Neff of Michigan's Western District* (discussed by Grits here and on the latest Reasonably Suspicious podcast). That must change; some full-time reporter(s) must step up. These issues deserve high-level coverage and national context that this humble, regional blog cannot provide.
Once you begin to pay attention, these cases are cropping up everywhere. In San Diego, we have the case of Flamencio Dominguez. In 2011, he was convicted of a 2008 murder based on DNA mixture evidence and sentenced to 50 years, reported the San Diego Union Tribune. Months before the trial, the crime lab realized the mathematics behind their old DNA-mixture analyses used an invalid baseline. They decided to abandon their old approach and switch to "probabilistic genotyping" instead.
(Similarly, in Texas in 2015, crime labs discovered every lab in the state was using erroneous math in DNA-mixture analyses in ways that risked falsely accusing innocent people, see coverage here and here. In Travis County alone, 11 cases were found where suspect matches changed to "inconclusive." Our crime labs, too, were advised to switch to probabilistic genotyping.)
When the baseline issue was corrected in Mr. Dominguez's case, the new algorithm went from accusing him to "inconclusive." But prosecutors did not tell Mr. Dominguez's counsel about the change. The defendant was convicted based on what now is admittedly erroneous DNA math, and his lawyer wasn't aware of the flawed DNA-mixture protocols until six years later.
After his lawyer found out about the inaccurate math, Dominguez prevailed in 2017 on a habeas corpus claim and was released from prison. But prosecutors decided to try him again, this time using a tool from a company called STR-Mix based on probabilistic genotyping. That was the forensic tool Judge Neff evaluated in Michigan. The bottom-line assessment in Judge Neff's opinion was that:
The DNA evidence sought to be admitted in this case—in essence, that it is 49 million times more likely if [the defendant] is a contributor to the DNA on the gun than if he is not— is not really evidence at all. It is a combination of forensic DNA techniques, mathematical theory, statistical methods (including Monte Carlo-Markov Chain modeling, as in the Monte Carlo gambling venue), decisional theory, computer algorithms, interpretation, and subjective opinions that cannot in the circumstances of this case be said to be a reliable sum of its parts. Our system of justice requires more.Courts in California were robbed of their chance to decide whether they agree. San Diego prosecutors essentially let Dominguez plea out to time served because the company STR-Mix would not allow the state courts to examine their source code without a slew of non-disclosure agreements the court deemed inappropriate, reported the Union-Tribune:
court records filed last month show that the company wanted Speredelozzi and his experts to sign a restrictive non-disclosure agreement and abide by other restrictions. on Oct. 23 [Judge Charles G.] Rogers declined to require the [defendant's] lawyer sign the agreement, and warned that if the company failed to comply, he might exclude the DNA evidence all together from the trial. On Nov. 7 a lawyer for the company wrote to Speredelozzi they would not provide the crucial source code for the software without the non-disclosure agreement.So the company chose to let the case against an alleged murderer fall apart rather than let California courts review its source code. But Judge Neff in Michigan already had experts do just that! Is the company afraid other courts may reach similar conclusions and disallow or limit their product's use? The execs at STR-Mix must really be feeling the heat!
One also wonders if the good folks at the Houston Forensic Science Center, which late last month announced they would begin using the STR-Mix software, might now begin to consider that decision ill-timed? Certainly, after Judge Neff's decision, one would question using it for either mixtures involving more than three sources or three-source mixtures where the target makes up less than 20 percent of the sample. Lots of trace-DNA samples are submitted to crime labs that don't meet those criteria!
On the November episode of the Reasonably Suspicious podcast, my co-host Mandy Marzullo and I discussed Judge Neff's opinion and its implications for crime labs interpreting DNA mixture evidence. I pulled out that segment as a stand-alone; you can listen to it here:
The news about Mr. Dominguez's case hadn't yet come out, so we didn't talk about that. But the segment discussed some of the recent history of ever-changing DNA-mixture math and explored the reasons underlying Judge Neff's decision.
IMO this is going to become a significant story with national and international implications (everybody relies on the same science) and lots of twists and turns over the next few years. We need some journalists with chops to jump on this coverage on the front end. Wrongful convictions have gone unchallenged simply because not one reporter in the whole country is covering this beat.
https://gritsforbreakfast.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-icebergs-tip-ca-man-walks-free-bc.html
PUBLISHER'S NOTE: I am monitoring this case/issue. Keep your eye on the Charles Smith Blog for reports on developments. The Toronto Star, my previous employer for more than twenty incredible years, has put considerable effort into exposing the harm caused by Dr. Charles Smith and his protectors - and into pushing for reform of Ontario's forensic pediatric pathology system. The Star has a "topic" section which focuses on recent stories related to Dr. Charles Smith. It can be found at: http://www.thestar.com/topic/charlessmith. Information on "The Charles Smith Blog Award"- and its nomination process - can be found at: http://smithforensic.blogspot.com/2011/05/charles-smith-blog-award-nominations.html Please send any comments or information on other cases and issues of interest to the readers of this blog to: hlevy15@gmail.com. Harold Levy: Publisher: The Charles Smith Blog;
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FINAL WORD: (Applicable to all of our wrongful conviction cases): "Whenever there is a wrongful conviction, it exposes errors in our criminal legal system, and we hope that this case — and lessons from it — can prevent future injustices.""
Lawyer Radha Natarajan:
https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20191210/da-drops-murder-charge-against-taunton-man-who-served-35-years-for-1979-slaying
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